A consistent approach

Jocelyn de Moubray casts his eye over the performances of the older stallions on the European roster assessing their
three-year-old crops in detail

To see all of Jocelyn's tables us the link to the pdf turner below

This compilation of statistics is designed to give an overall view of stallions’ ability over a period of three seasons, in order to avoid the bias of immediacy.

In many cases it is clear where a stallion is likely to be ranked once it has four-year-olds racing, but, because of the way the market tends to avoid stallions in their third and fourth covering seasons, it is not until a horse’s fifth or sixth crop reach the racecourse that any judgement can be definitive.

Thereafter, stallions are remarkably consistent, despite the fickle behaviour of those who use them, and, once a sire has reached its level, his progeny’s performance is usually consistent, until there is a moment for most, but not all, when age catches up with its results.

These figures are based upon the percentage of a stallion’s foals who are stakes performers, winners, or Group 1 performers.

I have long argued that the Pattern system has become a poor guide to any evaluation of performance – when almost every pedigree in all sales catalogues is full of black-type the outcome is meaningless and, as long as there is no attempt to reduce the number of Pattern races, particularly with foal crops falling across most of Europe, the Pattern will continue to fail breeders, bloodstock buyers and the racing public.

However, the only alternative is to use ratings, but despite the fact that handicaps and weight-for-age have been an integral part of racing in Europe for 150 years or more, ratings are still not widely understood or accepted, and so we are stuck with the far from perfect system of black-type races.

Of these the best guide is probably the percentage of Group 1 performers as, although there are more of these than there used to be, and not all Group 1 races are at the same level, even the “worst” of these races are still difficult to win and better than the vast majority of other races.

It is a sign of how consistent the best stallions are that seven of this year’s top 12 sires by percentage of stakes-performing progeny have been among the leaders for each of the last four years.

Dubawi, Frankel, Lope De Vega, Kingman, Camelot, Siyouni and Sea The Stars have been elite stallions for years now.

Wootton Bassett rejoins the top having been there before in 2023 and he is included as, even though he is no longer around, the huge books covered over the last three years are going to have a major influence over the coming years.

The son of Iffraaj was always an exceptional stallion, but it is rare indeed for horse to cover quite so many mares and for his percentages to improve.

Among these seven, Camelot is the exception as his fee has never reached six-figures, and Coolmore remains by far his biggest supporter at the yearling sales.

The son of Montjeu does perhaps lack a high-profile champion, but may have one next year with his Group 1-winning son Pierre Bonnard.

New to the elite

Night Of Thunder’s sixth and seventh crops were three and two-year-olds this year and their success made him the new champion sire in Britain and Ireland, however, this compilation rewards consistent success over a three-year period and, although it is more than likely that the son of Dubawi will continue to succeed at a high level, he was one of those sires whose results dipped while his second and third crops were racing.

The other newcomers are the younger sires Zarak, whose oldest progeny are six this year, Study Of Man and Too Darn Hot, who have four-year-olds in 2025.

Zarak’s first four crops, all from a €12,000 stud fee averaged 3.6 per cent Group 1 performers, which is exceptional for any sire, and his two-year-olds from a €25,000 fee already include the Group 1 performer Campacite and so his continued success at a high level is more or less assured.

Too Darn Hot enjoyed consistent support through his early years at stud and so is also likely to continue to succeed.

Study Of Man continued to attract 70-80 mares a year in his third and fourth seasons but, with only 116 foals in his first two crops, he has less than half of the number of representatives of the others among the top 12.

The son of Deep Impact will not have a large crop of well-bred three-year-olds racing for him until 2029, but in the meantime he remains an exciting prospect.

Two of the older stallions who may have a late life revival over the next few years are Gleneagles and Nathaniel.

Gleneagles stood for as much as €60,000 when he retired to stud in 2016, but he fell so far out of fashion that this year the son of Galileo has fewer than 30 three-year-olds.

However, even if his best progeny stay further than he did, he has covered plenty of mares again at lower fees since 2022 and has had two Group 1 winners this year in Calandagan and Royal Arrow.

Nathaniel, another son of Galileo, looked for a moment to be slipping towards the NH sphere, but his son Desert Crown was a brilliant winner of the Derby in 2022 and looked to be heading for greatness during the season which followed.

The resulting interest in his sire was reflected at this year’s yearling sales when Nathaniel recorded his highest average price ever.

Nathaniel is a sire of middle-distance horses, has had seven Group 1 winners including four Classic winners.

Another older sire who has often been neglected by the market is Make Believe, who stood in 2025 at only €8,000.

The son of Makfi produced a champion in Mishriff from his first crop and, if he then went through a quiet period as a result of lack of support, he has returned over the last two years with two new Group 1 winners in Sajir and Royal Supremacy, as well as other Classic performers such as Lazio and Klaynn.

His three-year-old Listed winner Fantasy World was among the top
lots at the Tattersalls Autumn Horses In Training Sale, and yet for some reason his yearlings averaged was not so strong at this year’s British and Irish sales.

Mehmas and New Bay will join the older sire division next year and, if the former has probably found his (very good) level, the latter could still move up when his first large crop of well bred three-year-olds reach the track next year.

The son of Dubawi had excellent results from his small early crops, but has been through a quieter period since – next year will be defining for the Jockey-Club winner.

Zarak is the clear leader among the sires who retired in 2018, and among the 2019 generation it is the remarkable Havana Grey who remains in the lead after five crops to race from low fees.

We shall see in 2026 whether the son of Havana Gold is as effective with mares covered at a higher fee.

There are still several sires from the 2020 group who proved effective even if Study Of Man, Too Darn Hot and Blue Point are the clear leaders.

Waldgeist’s second crop proved to be markedly superior to his first, and includes the Group winners Furthur and Light The Ghost, while Phoenix Of Spain had his first Group 1 winner this year and now has five horses rated more than 110 from his first two crops.

It is difficult to judge a stallion until his first four-year-olds have raced, if there is probably not an outstanding sire among the class of 2021, there are as many as 12 who have shown promise. This picture should be clearer next year.

Distance makes the difference

It is interesting to break down the complete listing into distance divisions as it is immediately obvious there are not the same opportunities for different categories of horses.

None of the sprinting sires can match the success, by these metrics, of the best sires of intermediate, middle-distance or stamina sires.

It is striking that, even if they stand at very different stud fees today,
there is only a marginal difference in the performance of the three-year-olds of the eight sires listed in this category.

Dubawi, with some faster mares, and progeny has dropped down to the intermediate category this year to take the top spot from Kingman, this pair are followed and could be passed over the coming years by Night Of Thunder and Wootton Bassett.

Frankel has also dropped down a category, thanks to milers such as Deigo Velazquez who is out of an Acclamation mare, to take the top spot from Lope De Vega, the most consistent of all current sires with 66 black-type performers in 2025 so far, 17 per cent of his runners, and Zarak.

Finally, at least the top six sires in the stamina category would be expensive and fashionable in a racing world in which everyone still aspired to winning the best races over 1m4f and further.

The two-year-old sires’ table follows the same principle with the last three seasons, or only two for those who retired to stud in 2021, combined.

No Nay Never and Havana Grey remain the leaders here in terms of
two-year-old stakes performers to foals, but when it comes to two-year-old Group 1 performers the leaders are Wootton Bassett, Dubawi, Frankel and Night Of Thunder, also the leaders for three year olds.

Kameko and Without Parole have done well to produce Group 1-performing two-year-olds from two relatively small crops to race so far.